BC Copper Retreats After Rapid Rise in Night Session, Continues Weakening During Day Session; Escalating China-US Tariff Conflict Weighs on Copper Prices [SMM BC Copper Review]

Today, the most-traded BC copper 2511 contract opened at 76,740 yuan/mt, closing lower with increased bearish positions. During the night session, BC copper initially fluctuated upward, touching a high of 77,170 yuan/mt, before the price center gradually shifted downward to a low of 73,410 yuan/mt. During the day session, the international copper 2511 contract opened higher at 75,700 yuan/mt, fluctuated considerably, and finally settled at 75,590 yuan/mt, down 2.10%. Open interest reached 4,879 lots, up 70 lots from the previous trading day, while trading volume reached 24,676 lots. On the macro front, Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods, and China explicitly expressed firm opposition. The escalation of tariff conflicts heightened risk-off sentiment, putting pressure on copper prices. Additionally, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report on the evening of October 24 Beijing time. The release of this report is expected to alleviate some of the current uncertainty in the US market. On the fundamentals side, supply side, as the delivery period approaches, some domestic supplies have arrived gradually, while imported supplies have not yet concentrated at ports, leading to a slightly looser supply. Demand side, although high copper prices suppressed downstream purchase willingness, enterprises resumed operations gradually after the holiday, and demand is expected to rebound weakly. Inventory side, as of Monday, October 13, SMM copper inventories in mainstream regions across China increased by 5,700 mt WoW to 172,000 mt.

SHFE copper contract 2511 settled at 85,120 yuan/mt. Based on the BC copper 2511 contract price of 75,590 yuan/mt, its after-tax price is 85,416 yuan/mt. The price spread between SHFE copper 2511 and BC copper is -296, maintaining an inverted spread which narrowed compared to the previous day.